The 2023 NBA Finals presents a lot of firsts. The Denver Nuggets have reached the Finals for the first time in franchise history. The Miami Heat are the first play-in team in history to get this far in the postseason. Both teams took different routes to get to this point with Denver beating Minnesota in five games, Phoenix in six games, and sweeping the Los Angeles Lakers. Miami shocked the basketball world by beating Milwaukee in five games, New York in six games, and a historical Eastern Conference Finals rematch with the Boston Celtics that went seven games. Here’s a deep look at the matchups between Denver and Miami for the NBA Finals.
Point Guard: Jamal Murray vs. Gabe Vincent
Jamal Murray is having quite the postseason run for Denver. Much like his run in the bubble from three years earlier, Murray continues to raise his level of offense, which included back-to-back 37-point games against the Lakers. Gabe Vincent has been peaking for Miami. From the last two games from the Eastern Conference Semifinals against New York through the Eastern Conference Finals, Vincent has found his stride on offense, including a 29-point game against the Celtics in Game 3.
Murray averaged 32.5 points and 6.3 rebounds per game in the Western Conference Finals. Vincent averaged 15.8 points and 2.2 assists per game in the Eastern Conference Finals. If Vincent played as he did throughout the Eastern Conference Finals, then he will make this battle competitive, if not, then Murray will be making buckets.
Advantage: Denver
Shooting Guard: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope vs. Max Strus
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope should be no stranger to Miami, having won against them as a member of the Los Angeles Lakers three years ago. KCP has had a quiet postseason run, but his numbers in the conference finals would say otherwise. Max Strus is one of Miami’s go-to shooters and one of the more reliable ones for Miami. Strus’s efforts helped Miami a lot and will be needed more than ever in the Finals. Caldwell-Pope made 14.8 points per game, while Strus made 9.4 points per game for Miami.
While KCP may have the points advantage, I feel as though both shooting guards are evenly matched in terms of what they can do.
Advantage: Even
Small Forward: Michael Porter Jr. vs. Jimmy Butler
Michael Porter Jr. could be an X-Factor for Denver going into the Finals. In the Western Conference Finals, he put up double-double performances against the Lakers, except for Game 3. MPJ may have a tough task waiting for him in the form of Playoff Jimmy. Jimmy Butler has lived up to his nickname. Despite not playing to his usual standards in Games 4, 5, and 6 against the Celtics, he rose to the occasion in Game 7. Porter Jr. averaged 15.0 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. Butler averaged 24.7 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. This matchup will be intense but expect Jimmy Butler to become Playoff Jimmy for much of the series.
Advantage: Miami
Power Forward: Aaron Gordon vs. Caleb Martin
Aaron Gordon is reliable on offense for Denver, using his high-flying dunking abilities and athleticism on the court. In the Western Conference Finals, he had a forgettable Game 2 but made up for it with some good moments in Games 3 and 4. Caleb Martin was stellar for Miami during the Eastern Conference Finals. Martin went from coming off the bench to becoming a starter, thanks to his scoring. Gordon averaged 12.8 points and 4.0 rebounds per game. Martin averaged 19.3 points and 6.4 rebounds per game. Both players are athletically gifted and can put up some good baskets, but Miami has to be more than fortunate they have Martin.
Advantage: Miami
Center: Nikola Jokic vs. Bam Adebayo
There’s a reason why Nikola Jokic is a two-time MVP. He’s a team player who helps his teammates get involved in the game. Whether it’s offense, defense, rebounding, or passing, Jokic is a complete player, who can put up double-double and triple-double numbers, just like what he’s been doing all season. Bam Adebayo, while a team player himself, can put up double-double performances but not to the same magnitude as Jokic. Adebayo, much like Butler, had a rough time playing against the Celtics in Games 4, 5, and 6 in the Eastern Conference Finals, but managed to play better in Game 7. Jokic averaged 27.8 points, 14.5 rebounds, and 11.8 assists per game. Adebayo averaged 14.9 points and 9.1 rebounds per game.
This matchup will be key for Adebayo. Jokic will prove to be a challenge, but if Adebayo can get him into foul trouble and have a consistent presence on defense and offense, he may have a chance. It will be an arduous task.
Advantage: Denver
Bench:
Miami has a bench consisting of Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson, Kevin Love, Cody Zeller, Haywood Highsmith, and Nikola Jovic. A solid bench with shooters, defenders, and decent rebounders. Denver has a bench consisting of Bruce Brown, Christian Braun, Reggie Jackson, Vlatkor Cancar, Zeke Nnaji, Thomas Bryant, Jeff Green, and DeAndre Jordan. Another solid and deep bench that can provide solid minutes and production. Both benches seem to be even, but the experience has to go to Miami, considering that Lowry, Robinson, and Love have played in the Finals before and know what it’s like. It will be close, but experience tends to be a factor.
Advantage: Miami
Coach:
Michael Malone deserves all the credit for guiding Denver through the postseason. He’s very strategic and knows how to counter any offensive or defensive scheme. Erik Spoelstra, much like Malone, is just as strategic and can find a way to counteract any offensive or defensive scheme. Both coaches are similar in approach, but in terms of experience, Spoelstra has reached the postseason more. It will be a chess match between the two coaches, but it will be all about who knows how to find an opening at the right moment.
Advantage: Miami
Miami and Denver have never met in the Finals up to this moment, which will make for an interesting matchup. In the regular season, Denver swept Miami in their two meetings. In the last three seasons, Denver has won six in a row over Miami. The last time Miami won against the Nuggets was back in August of 2020 in the bubble. This will certainly be a feeling-out process for both teams early in the series, but after that, it will be a battle of wits and who wants it more.
Prediction: Either team in 6 or 7
The Heat Check Magazine 