The Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics are once again set to do battle in the Eastern Conference Finals. Both teams are no strangers to each other, considering their history of meeting in this stage of the postseason. Miami managed to pull a major upset over the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round and managed to win a physical six-game series against the New York Knicks in the second round. Boston, on the other hand, won in six games against the Atlanta Hawks and won a seven game series against the Philadelphia 76ers, which saw Jayson Tatum put up a 50 plus point performance. While many see this as a rematch from the NBA Bubble three years ago, it’s a lot more deeper than that. Here’s a deep look at the matchup for the Eastern Conference Finals.
Point Guard: Gabe Vincent vs. Marcus Smart
Throughout the playoffs, Gabe Vincent’s production has waned greatly. In the first round series against Milwaukee, Vincent averaged 13.0 points and 5.0 assists per game. In the second round series against New York, Vincent averaged 10.3 points and 4.7 assists per game. Marcus Smart, meanwhile has been fairly consistent for Boston. Smart averaged 16.7 points and 5.2 assists per game in the first round series against Atlanta, and 15.1 points and 5.0 assists per game in the series against Philadelphia.
Vincent was inserted into the starting lineup for Miami midway through the regular season, sending Kyle Lowry to the bench. While Vincent had some mixed results, Lowry has been playing more effectively. If Miami wants to make this a very critical series, they will need to put Lowry in the starting lineup to counter Smart’s physicality and passing. It will take a lot for Vincent to rebound after playing like he did in the last series, especially when Miami could possibly reach the NBA Finals.
Advantage: Boston
Shooting Guard: Max Strus vs. Jaylen Brown
For Max Strus, getting another chance to play against Boston means getting another chance at redemption. In Game 7 of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, Strus knocked down what looked like a three-pointer, only for it to be ruled as out of bounds because his backfoot touched the out of bounds line. This was one of the moments that cost Miami a trip to the NBA Finals.
Since that time, Strus has stepped up for Miami, averaging 14.7 points in the series against New York. Jaylen Brown remains consistent throughout the playoffs. Brown averaged 26.7 points in the series against Atlanta and 22.9 points in the series against Philadelphia. For Strus, this is an arc of redemption. For Jaylen Brown, this is another chance to remain consistent as a scorer.
Brown is an offensive threat to the Heat’s defense, but if Miami can find a way to slow him down, it would take away a lot from Boston. However, this is Boston that Miami is dealing with, and anything can happen when you’re facing the Celtics.
Advantage: Boston
Small Forward: Jimmy Butler vs. Jayson Tatum
A marquee matchup for the series, Jimmy Butler and Jayson Tatum are the leading scorers for their respective teams. This postseason has seen Butler play with a sense of urgency and desire unlike anything we’ve ever seen, especially after missing a three-pointer that would’ve sent the Heat to the Finals. In the series against Milwaukee, Butler averaged 37.6 points and 6.0 rebounds per game, including a 56 point performance. Butler’s numbers in points would drop, despite the efforts he would put up against the Knicks in the second round, averaging 24.6 points per game, all while dealing with a nagging ankle injury.
Tatum is also having a great postseason, especially when he put up a 51-point performance to close out the 76ers. Tatum averaged 27.2 points per game in the series against the Hawks, and 29.0 points per game against Philadelphia. This matchup will be the focal point of the series. While both are great on offense, it will come down to defense, rebounding, and desire. If Butler’s ankle is at full health, this series will be one to watch.
Advantage: Even
Power Forward: Kevin Love vs. Al Horford
Two power forwards with a knack for knocking down three-pointers, Kevin Love and Al Horford are seen as the reliable power forwards who can come in and heat up the offense for a short while. While both Love and Horford have adjusted to their roles of helping crashing the glass, their points per game percentage are neck and neck. Love averaged 9.8 points in the series with Milwaukee and 6.0 points against New York. Horford averaged 5.8 points in the series against Atlanta and 7.3 points in the series against Philadelphia. Love’s offense production took a dip, while Horford’s increased, but not by much. These are two power forwards who are there to provide a lift or two, allowing the stars to shine at the highest level.
Advantage: Even
Center: Bam Adebayo vs. Robert Williams III
Bam Adebayo has been fairly consistent throughout the postseason. Although Jimmy Butler dominated in the first round series, it would be the second round series where Bam got to shine. In that series, Bam put up 18.7 points and 9.7 rebounds per game. Robert Williams III, while consistent at the free-throw line and defense, hasn’t put up much of an offensive presence. Williams put up 8.5 points in the series against the Hawks, and 5.1 points in the series with Philadelphia. I expect this matchup to be very physical in the paint, and a lot of defense to be on display for both players. Either way, Bam seems like he has improved the most between the two.
Advantage: Miami
Bench:
Miami has a bench consisting of Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin, and Cody Zeller. A solid bench with scorers like Lowry and Martin, a shooter in Robinson, and someone who can clean up the glass like Zeller. Boston has a bench consisting of Malcolm Brogdon, Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, and Grant Williams. Brogdon is the anchor of this bench along with Grant Willams. While Boston’s bench isn’t nothing to take light of, Miami’s bench has been proven to come in and play at an effective level, which they’ve done through much of the playoffs.
Advantage: Miami
Coach:
Erik Spoelstra is no stranger to making it deep into the postseason. This is Coach Spoelstra’s sixth Eastern Conference Finals appearance, and the Heat’s ninth overall. Joe Mazzulla has done an impressive job leading Boston throughout the postseason, making it an inaugural appearance for the interim coach. In terms of experience, Spoelstra is familiar with taking on Boston, knowing their schemes and tendencies, but against a coach like Mazzulla, it’s more of a feeling out process. In the regular season, Boston won 3 of their 4 meetings. In the postseason, Spoelstra will be tested once again and will so Mazzulla.
Advantage: Miami
Miami and Boston have had playoff history going up against each other, going back to 2010, when the Celtics won in five games in the first round, and would go on to the NBA Finals. Miami would win against Boston in 2011 and 2012, winning in six games and seven games respectively. In the 2020 bubble, Miami won an intense six-game series against Boston. Last season, the Celtics won in seven games. In the many meetings between the two teams, both teams would go on to the Finals. The Heat have won 3 out of 5 meetings against Boston, two of which happened in the Eastern Conference Finals. Should Miami win, they will be the second 8th-seeded team to reach the Finals. Should Boston win, it will be through the duo of Tatum and Brown.
Prediction: Either team in 7.
The Heat Check Magazine 